The next monthly discussion meetup is Saturday, November 5 @ 2 PM (see below for location details).
For this meetup, we going to discuss predictions and betting with an eye toward how concretizing your beliefs with probabilities can be valuable at the individual and group levels. For example, at the individual level, you can weigh possibility more concretely to make decisions, and at a group/societal level, mechanisms such as predictions markets can provide valuable information for various purposes.
The key details and suggested readings/videos are below. Please feel free to come to the meetup even if you don’t do any (or only some) of the suggested reading. These are just starting points to get the discussion going and are by no means required.
Also, please feel free to come even if you’re worried it will be awkward, you won’t fit in, or you aren’t the “typical person who comes to a Rationality meetup.” We are welcoming (albeit occasionally argumentative)!
DATE & LOCATION
Date: Saturday, 11/5 @ 2pm-4pm
Location: South Loop Strength & Conditioning – upstairs in the mezzanine
645 S Clark
Chicago IL 60605
Note: Todd owns this gym so that’s why there’s a Rationality meetup at a gym 🙂
If you have trouble finding us, text/call Shane at 608-436-1809.
RESOURCES:
Email list and discussion topics archive » https://chicagorationality.com
Discord » https://discord.gg/eDHq3TXrH3
Events Calendar »
General: https://calendar.google.com/calendar/embed?src=info%40chicagorationality.com&ctz=America%2FChicago
iCal (e.g for iOS): https://calendar.google.com/calendar/ical/info%40chicagorationality.com/public/basic.ics
READINGS/BACKGROUND
Thinking in Bets | Annie Duke | Talks at Google
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYNsSeYjkp4
CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty
https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22
Prediction Markets As A Forecasting Tool
https://www.marshall.usc.edu/sites/default/files/oleary/intellcont/Prediction_Markets-1.pdf
Testimonial Injustice and Prediction Markets
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/02691728.2022.2036261
Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?
http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.pdf
Talent Spotting in Crowd Prediction
https://psyarxiv.com/rm49a/
